For TCU, the formula for getting into its first BCS bowl game is simple: Win out and hold your breath.
In the wacky world of BCS standings, with human polls and computer rankings in control of a team's fate, nothing is straightforward.
The No. 11 Horned Frogs (9-1) have a great opportunity to help themselves, playing one of the biggest games in modern day school history tonight against No. 10 Utah (9-0).
This is the first time TCU has played a game in which both teams have a combined ranking this high since Nov. 14, 1959.
A win would vault TCU into the thick of the BCS bowl debate for non-automatic qualifying conferences, with only a Nov. 22 home game remaining against Air Force (7-2). It also would give TCU at least a share of the Mountain West Conference title.
"I don't think you need to say much about this game. It's everything you want,"
TCU coach Gary Patterson said. "You don't need anybody going into a game like this that's weak of heart."
The one-loss Horned Frogs would still have a few obstacles even if they win out. Boise State (8-0) and Ball State (9-0) could potentially finish the season without a loss.
To receive an automatic BCS bid, TCU would need to win the conference title, finish in the top 12 of the final BCS standings and rank higher than any other non-automatic qualifying conference champion. TCU could also be among a pool of teams eligible for an at-large selection. But that's a long shot. No more than one non-automatic BCS qualifier has received a BCS bowl bid in the same season.
In the BCS standings, No. 8 Utah leads all non-automatic qualifiers, followed by No. 10. Boise State, No. 12 TCU and No. 17 Ball State.
Ball State's weak schedule would likely keep it below one-loss TCU. But Boise State, which built name recognition and national respect with its upset win over Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, is a big concern for TCU fans.
In September, TCU lost at then-No. 2 Oklahoma, 35-10, and Boise State won at then-No. 17 Oregon, 37-32.
"I think an 11-1 TCU is more accomplished than a 12-0 Boise State,"
said analyst Jerry Palm of CollegeBCS.com. "If I had a vote, I would vote TCU above Boise State. TCU is in as good a shape as any one-loss team can be. But voters would have to move them ahead of Boise State."
TCU has put itself in position for a historical finish because of a defense that ranks second nationally. TCU also ranks first in sacks (38) and tackles for loss (85) and is tied for first with 26 turnovers.
Patterson's team has been traditionally strong. TCU has four 10-win seasons in the last six years, and the Horned Frogs are 11-3 in their last 14 games against teams from BCS member conferences.
BCS bowls are taking notice. A Sugar Bowl representative witnessed TCU's 54-7 victory against Wyoming on Oct. 25. And representatives from the Sugar, Fiesta and Orange bowls are expected to be at tonight's game, where TCU hopes to get its second win over a top-10 team this season.
"That would pretty much prove we're a pretty good team,"
senior linebacker Jason Phillips said, "deserving of a BCS bowl."
